Sooooo…yeah….
That’s probably how a lot of you felt after last week’s fantasy results. If you had a bad week, join the crowd.
It appears that certain defenses (the Cowboys, Titans, and others) may have finally caught up with certain offenses (Bills, Panthers, and others) after the long offseason, which led to some surprising and disappointing performances in Week 10.
But not for Aaron Rodgers owners. Never for Aaron Rodgers owners.
No worries. If you have a bad week, it’s not your fault; it was just one of those weeks. Good grief, the Chicago Bears’ DEFENSE was the number one fantasy player last week. Let’s just write it off as an off week and get back on the horse, ready for Week 11.
Last Week’s Picks: 9 for 18 (50 %)
- Hits: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, KC/Denver Running Backs, Michael Turner, Knowshon Moreno, NE Running Backs
- Misses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Breaston, Pierre Garcon, Josh Cribbs, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard
Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.
Just a reminder, the following teams are on bye this week…so make sure to rest any players on these teams:
- Indianapolis
- New Orleans
- Pittsburgh
- Houston
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 11: QB
Start Em QB: Tim Tebow
I understand I will probably be the ONLY fantasy “Expert” this week who will predict success for Tim Tebow against the Jets in Week 11. Just hear me out.
After starting only FOUR games out of ten, Tebow is already the 23rd ranked QB in all of Fantasy. Not the 23rd best QB since he became a starter…the 23rd best QB for the entire year.
Now I know Tebow looked bad against a Detroit defense that put a lot of pressure on him – something that the Jets will definitely try to emulate; but the Jets’ passing defense isn’t exactly elite. They rank 8th overall, which isn’t too shabby, but they aren’t untouchable through the air (Detroit is ranked 2nd by the way). And oh, by the way, he still finished with 12 fantasy points against Detroit, which would have been good for 14th best this past week…again, not awesome by any means, but still a starter in deep leagues.
And just think about the matchups. Darrelle Revis will take away…who? Does it really matter? It’s not like the Broncos’ passing attack will REALLY miss Eric Decker, or Demariyus Thomas, or whoever Revis will be guarding.
Remember, you don’t need Tebow to be PRETTY to be effective in fantasy.
Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 11 projection: 120 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 50 rushing yards, 1 TD (this would be good for 20 points…definitely a a top ten Fantasy QB in almost any given week).
Other start ‘em QBs for Week Eleven:
- Matt Moore – Buffalo’s pass defense is absolutely atrocious.
- Matt Stafford – Bounce back game against a terrible Carolina team.
Sit Em QB: Cam Newton
Is anybody else scared that the league has started to figure him out a little bit? What Tennessee did last week against the great Cam Newton was interesting – they played him like he was a quarterback. The Titans basically decided that Newton would probably beat them on the ground a few times a game, as those plays are unstoppable even if you plan for them. But if they could confuse him in the pocket, they could have success against him. And they did.
The Lions’ pass defense is, once again, the second best unit in the league. Be careful starting the wunderkind in Week 11.
Cam Newton fantasy football Week 11 projection: 200 yards, 2 INTs. 40 rushing yards.
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Eleven:
- Mark Sanchez – I think the Jets will definitely try to rebound well after the disaster against New England, but with a short week in store I think they rebound on the ground…not with the Sanchize’s arm.
- Joe Flacco – Just…say…no.
Jerod’s thoughts:
I have emphatically said no to Tebow every week since his first as the starter. My reluctance to trust him has had less to do with my faith in his ability – I’m on record numerous times on this site saying I think he can be a winning QB in the right system – and far more to do with my lack of faith in John Fox’s faith in Tebow. I’ve thought that there was at least a decent chance of Tebow being pulled in the last couple of games if things got out of hand, and I wasn’t willing to risk a QB slot on a chance like that. But now, with Tebow grabbing a more firm grip on the starting job, it’s okay to deploy him with some confidence. I wouldn’t particularly want him as my QB this week against an angry Jets team, but I can seem him squeezing out 10-12 points.
As for Cam, the entire time struggled last week. I’m not ready to write him off, but being cautious with rookie QBs is always smart, especially later in the season as their bodies and focus start to hit a wall.
I bet Flacco rebounds and has a better week that you think. It’s his, and the Ravens, M.O.
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 11: RBs
Start Em RB: Marshawn Lynch
I’m not really a huge fan of Lynch in general, but he’s actually had a surprisingly solid season so far from a fantasy perspective. This week, his Seahawks will travel on the road and face a tough division rival on the road.
Lol.
I know. It’s just the NFC West. But they WILL be playing the St. Louis Rams…a team who is second to last in the league against the run. Start Lynch with confidence this week.
Surely Ray Lewis would.
And Tracy Porter…
Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 11 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week Eleven:
- Reggie Bush – He’s been hot lately, and he should have a hey-day against the Bills.
- Kendall Hunter – I expect the 49ers to run away and hide from the Cardinals this week…and Hunter will be a beneficiary.
Sit Em RB: Beanie Wells
I’ve been very wrong about him this year. Right now, he’s in the top 12 of all Running Backs. However, he’s not doing ANYTHING this week against the best defense in the National Football League. (Scroll down for Jerod’s obligatory love session with the 49ers).
Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 11 projection: 45 total yards
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Eleven:
- Michael Bush – Minnesota is still VERY good against the run…expect them to make Carson Palmer beat them.
- Kansas City Running Backs – A lot of things going against them this week…the Pats should have a big lead, the Pats are pretty good against the run, and the lack of Matt Cassel will allow the Pats to to focus on the run even MORE.
Jerod’s thoughts:
I think it’s safe to start treating the 49ers’ D like we treat the Steelers’ and Ravens’ defenses in their heyday: you simply don’t start opposing running backs against them. The 49ers give up 73.2 yards rushing a game, and the next rushing touchdown they give up will be their first this season.
As for Lynch, agreed. I’ve been slow to jump on his bandwagon as well, but he’s earned it. And the matchup is very, very tasty this week.
I would caution folks against sitting Michael Bush though. Minnesota’s run D is good, but it’s not great; and Bush has proven that he can put up numbers when Run DMC is hurt (and he still has not practiced). Palmer may well throw early and often, but the Raiders’ are a run-first team, and Bush is good enough to start against a defense (except, of course, the 49ers).
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 11: WRs
Start Em WR: Mario Manningham
The Giants and Eli Manning will have something to prove against the Eagles on Sunday Night, and Philadelphia won’t be able to do much about it. Asomugha will probably match up against Nicks, and Victor Cruz will garner more attention as he’s been targeted a lot in recent weeks. Look for the speedster from Michigan to have a big night.
Mario Manningham fantasy football Week 11 projection: 7 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week Eleven:
- Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers.
- Mike Williams – Green Bay is pretty bad against the pass…I like Tampa Bay’s potential against them in the air.
Sit Em WR: Eric Decker
Revis Island. I think Decker will actually beat him deep once…but not for a TD.
Eric Decker fantasy football Week 11 projection: 2 catches for 45 yards
Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Eleven:
- Dwyane Bowe – Rough day for the Chiefs…Matt Cassell’s injury will hurt them all.
Jerod’s thoughts:
I feel like we may need to institute some rules in this column to challenge you Jon. The first rule would be this: you are not allowed to pick a wide receiver going up against the best cover corner since Deion whose QB just completed two passes in a win. I mean come on. Could it get any more obvious?
However, to show you that I still love you anyway Jon, I will implore readers to check out your terrific analysis of the differences between college basketball and the NBA, and why you are so much more a fan of the latter.
Now, you’re Dwayne Bowe pick is excellent. At least let him show that he and Tyler Palko have come chemistry before you trust him this late in the season.
I agree with all of your start picks, especially Mike Williams. No really, this is the week he finally breaks out and gets into the end zone. I PROMISE!
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 11: TEs
Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
I think Cam will have to check down an awful lot as Detroit puts a lot of pressure on him and shows him some more elaborate coverages. Olsen should rise to the occasion and have a pretty nice game in the process.
Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 10 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards
Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley
I know he’s a top five fantasy Tight End in terms of talent…but he’s just WAY too inconsistent for my liking. Be careful of starting him against the Buccaneers.
Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD
Jerod’s Thoughts:
I actually have to disagree with both of these picks. While I appreciate your logic in taking Olsen, also consider that the Lions are giving up just 5.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this year. The Bucs, on the other hand, are one of the more generous teams to opposing tight ends, giving up 8.0 points. I share your frustration with Finley’s inconsistency, but it looks like he is starting to become a more integral part of the offense after his very slow Week 6 and 7 performances.
Another guy to get back in your lineups is Vernon Davis. He finally broke out last week, and I look for a lot more of that in the future, especially as the 49ers continue to trust Alex Smith more and more.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 11: D/ST
Start Em Defense: Jacksonville and Cleveland
Let me just warn you…this should absolutely NOT be a game that you watch even one second of. However, both fantasy defenses should have a field day in a game that just might finish 6-5.
Sit Em Defense: San Diego
Chicago has really shown me something the last few weeks. Even if Jay Cutler hasn’t been consistently lighting it up, they have been scoring a lot of points regardless. Plus, is there more of a slam dunk than Devin Hester against the horrendous Chargers’ special teams units? Expect Chicago to be playing with a lot of short fields, and put up a lot of points in a game that ends up being a surprising shootout.
Jerod’s Thoughts:
The Jacksonville and Cleveland choices are solid, but question: did you ask Andy Bottoms if it was okay to reference his thoughts from this week’s waiver wire column without attribution?
It’s tough to trust anything going on in San Diego right now, so I can definitely get on board with that pick.
As for an under-the-radar defense to consider, how about the Dolphins? I know they’re competition hasn’t been great lately, but they’ve still shut down to two NFL teams in back to back weeks (Chiefs, Redskins) and they take on the struggling Bills this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws a lot of picks.
**********
The Week 11 Start/Sit picks are in the books. But of course, this is only the beginning. Now the real fun begins in the comment section, so load it up with lineup-specific questions and we’ll get to them throughout the week, culminating with our marathon Sunday morning start/sit live chat, which will go off at 11:00 ET and run all the way up until kickoff.
And don’t forget to stop by and say hello to our friends at Daily Joust. It’s one of the only sites on the web where you can play weekly fantasy NFL, college football, college basketball, NHL, and NBA games…well, scratch that last one, for now…and you’re also helping to support MSF when you sign up.
Good luck in Week 11 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.
The post Fantasy Football Week 11 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice, Projections, and Roster Q&A appeared first on Midwest Sports Fans.